Tony Predictions

Disclaimer: I have not seen all the nominated shows, so i can not speak to the ones i haven’t seen :) 

Best Musical

Will win: Schmigadoon

Should win: The Lost Boys

Compared to last season, this one was a bit of a dud for new, fresh, and exciting GOOD QUALITY original theater. The Lost Boys felt not just original (despite being based on a beloved cult movie), but ambitious, sexy, a little scary, fresh, and groundbreaking. With its astounding special effects, gorgeous 80’s inspired score, outstanding performances, jaw dropping sets, and beautiful costumes, it screams BIG BROADWAY SHOW even if it doesn’t look like one at first   

I do think Schmigadoon has a fairly good shot at beating out The Lost Boys. Like The Lost Boys, it relies heavily on audience nostalgia. But while The Lost Boys is aimed at fans of the movie, 80’s film buffs, vampire fans, horror fans, and young women, Schmigadoon caters to a wider audience, fans of all ages who love old fashioned Broadway song and dance shows. While Schmigadoon is based on a TV show, you have no need to watch it, it’s just good old fashioned fun. However, The Lost Boys felt like it took more creative risks then Schmigadoon. However, Schmigadoon did have much better critical reception, which could also give it a leg up. I feel like the voters will side with Schmigadoon due to its overwhelming critical praise

Two Strangers was so sickly sweet and quite charming, but it did not feel like it was best musical material. Despite overwhelming critical praise, I found it to be lackluster compared to the other options. The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon, and Titanique all felt like they did something fun and unique. Two Strangers felt like a cliche romantic comedy (which kinda threw me off given the fact that Robin was going to be Dougal’s aunt by the end of the show…oh and she had an affair with Dougal’s dad…) that may have been better suited for a smaller off Broadway theater

Titanique was some of the most fun i’ve had in a theater, like The Lost Boys, this show screamed BIG BROADWAY MUSICAL. The comedy was fresh, the costumes were just stunning, and the performances had me rolling on the floor laughing (shout out to the absolutely hysterical Jim Parsons for that bonkers five minute improv speech about life not being fair). But compared to my two front runners, this didn’t measure up in scope or ambition. 

Best Lead Actor In A Musical

WIll win: Joshua Henry 

Should Win: Joshua Henry

Without a shadow of a doubt, the most predictable win on Sunday is the race for best actor in a musical. I knew as soon as Joshua Henry opened his mouth that he was getting that Tony. And after his big number “Make Them Hear You” I turned to my best friend, and told her “we just saw a Tony winning performance.”

Roles like Coalhouse Walker Jr are Tony award roles and career best roles, roles you play knowing you will probably end up with a Tony, and the role you’ll probably be remembered for long after you’re gone. Henry’s performance was moving, jaw dropping, gasp inducing, and powerful. I am not a crier normally, but Henry made me cry. 

The only other contender i thought was worthy of the Tony was Nicholas Christopher in Chess, but in the end you need more than outstanding vocals to snag these awards, and while Christopher’s vocals did send me to the great beyond more than once (can we talk about that note he holds for 20 SECONDS in Endgame….holy shit, seeing it from the front row, while he was two feet away, was an out of body experience). Christopher is an extraordinary actor, but when you compare him to Joshua Henry…there is no contest

Sam Tutty is the one good thing about Two Strangers, if this show were in an off broadway theater, i could see him winning big at the Lucille Lortel awards. He took what I thought was an otherwise lackluster show and made it bearable, it also helps that he is so deliciously BRITISH, and so adorable, like an overexcited labradoodle puppy. I saw a lot of myself in his character and his performance, but again, next to Joshua Henry, he has no chance. 

If it weren’t for the Ragtime sized elephant in the room, the Tony would most likely go to Luke Evans for his otherworldly performance as FrankNFurter in Rocky Horror. Evans manages to  take on the herculean task of making this role his own while also paying tribute to the legendary Tim Curry, AND pleasing the….shall we say…passionate fan base. He commands the stage with charisma and charm. And boy….he can SING!! He is over the top, glamorous, sexy, and even manages to make you cry. His performance was more than a performance, it felt like an experience, one that sticks with you long after the curtain falls. Whoever replaces him has gargantuan shoes to fill.

This one is Henry’s to win, it always was

Actress in A Lead Role In A Musical

Will win: Cassie Levy

Should win: Cassie Levy

Ragtime is going to sweep the Tony awards. Similar to Joshua Henry’s Coalhouse Walker Jr, Cassie Levy’s “mother” is another career best type of role that wins Tony awards

The competition is not nearly as stacked as best actor.

Sarah Chase was charming and fun in Schmigadoon, and I knew she was probably going to get a nomination, because her performance was so special (she managed to be as good as her TV counterpart), and reminiscent of the great Tony winners of years past. But next to Cassie Levy, she really doesn’t stand a chance

Stephanie Hsu was a fun and lively Janet in Rocky Horror, but nothing about her performance really screamed TONY AWARD. She is very good in this role, and, should the show extend into 2027, I hope she plays it for a long time, but a good performance alone is not Tony worthy

Marla Mindelle, in another season, probably could have snagged the Tony. Her improv skills are out of this world, and how she manages to come up with new material EVERY. SINGLE. NIGHT is beyond me. This role could have been very cookie cutter, but instead she served us camp, glamour, and sex on a silver platter. And her vocal chops are breathtaking

I did not care for Two Strangers (if that was not made clear earlier on). Christiani Pitts was annoying, bratty, and whiney. Nothing about her performance made me root for her, if there was one person I rooted for, it was her poor sister, who was rightfully mad at her for the poor choices she made.  

Supporting Actor in a Musical

Will win: Ben Levi Ross

Should win: Ali Louis Bourzgui 

Another win for Ragtime is inevitable, Ben Levi Ross plays a grieving widow with a sweet little girl who now depends on him. His story chronicles the very timely and heartbreaking immigrant experience, and the Tony voters love a good timely story that also pulls on the heartstrings, and will most likely give it to him. While Ross was outstanding in his performance, it was not quite the standout for me, with so many incredible performances. I wish i could give the entire cast a Tony

Ali Louis Bourzgui was the surprise standout for me this season, i was actually surprised he was not a contender for leading actor, but at least here he has a decent chance at his first Tony win! Bourzgui takes the role of David, and turns him from a sinister biker into a David Bowie-esque rock star with enough charisma and star quality to fill all of New York City. I did not even recognize him or his voice at first (having seen him in Tommy and Hadestown), he was so immersed in his role and an absolute joy to watch. 

I had the immense pleasure of seeing Andre DeSheilds, the king of Broadway, in Cats when it was at the PAC in 2023. While it was beyond thrilling to see this icon, and i will never forget it, he doesn’t do much. Don’t get me wrong, he is still an electrifying performer, its astounding that he is 80 and still has the energy to do 8 shows a week. We get maybe 6 songs (out of 22) where he is singing, and for most of the show, he is sitting at a table in the back. While i do understand that he is an old man, and not as mobile as the rest of the cast, it takes more then being a legend to win a Tony. 

Bryce Pinkham tries with every ounce of his being to make Chess a funny show, and he brings down the house with his big solo number, here’s the problem, Chess is not supposed to be funny. I might be in the minority, but I thought he was absolutely fab, at one point he made me laugh so hard that I let out a very loud snort at one of his jokes...and he heard....i was so embarrassed. The performance is a blast, but just not Tony worthy. And in the end, it was not the best show. Pinkham really tried, but unfortunately it just was not the best match for his skills. 

Layton Williams was fun and gregarious as “The Iceberg Bitch” in Titanique, their “River Deep Mountain High” had my baby girl raving in my uterus, and me bopping along in my seat. But the fact that i did not remember them a few days latter does say quite a bit, fun, but not the most memorable, especially next to a larger than life (and SNUBBED) Frankie Grande and Jim Parsons

Supporting Actress in a Musical

Will win: Nichelle Lewis

Should win: Ana Gastyer 

Yep, another curly “W” for Ragtime, Lewis’ powerful and heartbreaking performance is almost guaranteed to win a Tony, she was the perfect match for Joshua Henry’s Coalhouse, her performance packs an equally emotional punch, especially in her beautiful solo “Your Daddies Son.” This is even more emotional when you know the fate that will soon befall her character. Audra McDonald left some pretty big shoes to fill, and Lewis filled them beautifully 

Shoshana Bean is an incredibly gifted performer, and her songs were high points in The Lost Boys, especially her 11 o clock number, the thrilling belt heavy ballad “Wild.” But her performance did not scream “Tony winner.” She was good, even great in this show, but by no means Tony worthy, honestly, she was better in Mr Saturday Night

Ana Gastyer took a role made famous by the incredible Kristen Chenoweth, a herculean task that actually seemed impossible. Who on earth can be as good as one of the greatest sopranos of all time? Apparently the answer is this SNL comedy legend. She was wild, wacky, deliciously EVIL, and gloriously campy, which was everything Mildred Leighton should be and more. Her eighteen page patter song “Tribulation” was utterly jaw dropping

Best Revival:

Will win: Ragtime

Should win: Cats The Jellicle Ball 

Burn me at the steak for this one. But I thought The Jellicle Ball was far superior to Ragtime. Yes, Ragtime is timely and a gorgeous show, but Cats The Jellicle Ball took a show that is widely panned, and kinda wacky, and made it something totally different, it almost feels like a totally different show. I never ever imagined that Cats of all shows would be the hottest ticket on Broadway. 

Gone is the junkyard set, in its place is an underground ballroom club, this show transports audiences to a world they may not have known about previously. This show takes bold risks, and the result is a puuuurrrrrfect magical show. 

I loved Rocky Horror, and it introduced me to a magnificent and wacky world of absolute pleasure, but it was not as transportive and creative as the revival of Cats

Best Choreography 

Will win: Cats The Jellicle Ball

Should win: Cats The Jellicle Ball

Never before has dance and movement thrilled me quite like Cats The Jellicle Ball. This is not your typical Broadway style of dance, this is also not the dance you saw in the original production of Cats (which was also Tony nominated). The choreography perfectly blends Madonna esque "voguing", ballet and jazz (which was a big part of the original production), funk, West African dance, and street dance (like what you might see at a nightclub). Prior to The Jellicle Ball, i’d never seen anything quite like this, and god knows when i’ll see something like it again

The only competitor i see to Cats is The Lost Boys IF we are considering fight and aerial choreography as part of this category, because that fight and flight choreography is really something to behold, and like Cats, this felt exciting, new, and thrilling, this is not something you see a lot of on Broadway anymore, hopefully, if this wins the Tony, we WILL see more of it 

Schmigadoon served up classic golden age choreography, with big skirts, high kicks, twirls, and giant tap numbers, but we’ve seen so much of it before, while it was fun to watch, it was cliched. It didn’t feel as exciting and fresh as Cats

Ragtime is not a song and dance type show, the music doesn’t lend itself to big flashy dance numbers, with the exception of “The Getting Ready Rag.” I honestly was shocked to see a nomination for it in this category  

Design Awards:

Without a shadow of a doubt, The Lost Boys will sweep all the visual and design awards, never have I seen something so beautiful yet horrifying on stage. Also when was the last time we had a full aerial stunt team on Broadway?