Tony Predictions

 Disclaimer: I have not seen all the nominated shows, so i can not speak to the ones i haven’t seen :) 

Best Musical

Will win: Maybe Happy Ending

Should win: Maybe Happy Ending

In a very packed season with so many wonderful shows, many of which were not nominated (looking at you Just in Time), this was an absolute no-brainer, and it seems many agree with me. Maybe Happy Ending is unique, quirky, and original. Originally i was rooting for Operation Mincemeat, and i think it was a lovely show, it actually tied with Maybe Happy Ending as my favorite of the season (so far at least), but having given it more thought, Maybe Happy Ending was the superior one

I also think the critics and voters tend to lean towards musicals like Maybe Happy Ending that have deeper, thought provoking messages and meditations that leave you shaken and talking long after the curtain falls, vs fast paced laughs for the sake of making the crowd laugh, with one or two applause bait moments.

Maybe Happy Ending has all of these, and is also a spectacle, with breathtaking music. The show is a gorgeous commentary on the nature and importance of memory, while also asking the questions “why love? Why love when we all have an expiration date? Is love worth the pain you feel when your partner leaves you or dies?”

It felt like watching a pixar movie

Also #Hwaboon was snubbed, Hwaboon you diva, demand a nomination :p 

Best Book of a Musical

Will win: Operation Mincemeat

Should win: Operation Mincemeat

Operation Mincemeat is one of the cleverest books of a musical i have encountered, i wasn’t sure how they’d turn something so serious into a slapstick musical comedy, but the geniuses at Split Lip did it, and turned it into a giant hit

This book is non stop jokes, with just the right amount of serious moments, while also teaching audiences a snippet of history that many do not know about (I certainly did not). 

I think Death Becomes Her was equally clever, with good messages about aging and beauty (which everyone needs to hear), but I think critics would root for an original musical versus a show based off of an existing property

The book of Maybe Happy Ending is unique when compared to DBH and OM, because its not a comedy, but very heartwarming, and, like OM, totally original. It has a very good chance, but i’ll be rooting for OM

Best Original Score

Will win: Maybe Happy Ending

Should win: Operation Mincemeat

Who doesn’t love a good jazzy score? The critics certainly do. We don’t see enough scores like Maybe Happy Ending on Broadway, in the movies? Maybe, but i don't know about any musicals that are purely Frank Sinatra style smooth jazz, Just in Time comes very close (but wasn't able to be nominated). 

If you asked me, i could only name 2 or 3 songs i remembered from Maybe Happy Ending, that’s not to say the score was bad, it just wasn't as memorable 

But i am a sucker for a more traditional score, big brassy over the top numbers, heartbreaking ballads, a banger of an act one closer, and a patter song. Dear Bill is one of the most beautiful songs i’ve heard on Broadway in a long time. Das Ubermensch is clever, hysterical, and the most wonderful way to open Act 2, i never imagined i’d say that the Nazi techno dance number was the highlight of the show

Best Revival

Will win: Gypsy

Should win: Sunset BLVD

This category, and the race for best actress might just be the most debated of the season. Having seen both shows, I can say that both blew me away in very different ways! 

Sunset BLVD was actually not on my radar, i wanted to see it simply because i’d heard good buzz from the UK run. Gypsy is another story, i’d wanted to see it for a long time, i had no idea who Audra or Nichole were (i know, i know, burn me at the steak). 

Gypsy is like the Mount Everest of musical theater, and is known as being one of the greatest musicals, and the greatest book musical of all time, and i can see why people think that

This particular production of Sunset BLVD is very divided, it’s different, a typical production of Sunset BLVD is usually quite over the top, with grand sets, sweeping costumes, and is known to be a spectacle. This production is extremely minimal (as is Jamie Lloyd’s style), but it works so well. It is thrilling, volcanic, and sexy. It was like watching a movie being shot

Look. Gypsy is PHENOMENAL, its a classic for a reason, but in the end, Sunset won me over just a little more then Gypsy, it was so uniquely done, and it just clicked with me 

Lead Actor in a Musical:

Will win: Darren Criss

Should win: Jonathan Groff

The race for Best Actor is basically Vocal Adrenaline versus the Dalton Academy Warblers, this one was the hardest one for me to choose. On one hand, you have the amazing, brooding Tom Francis in Sunset BLVD (which he won an Olivier Award for), you also have the charming and moving performance from Jeremy Jordan in Floyd Collins, but in the end, the two performances that stuck with me and screamed TONY AWARD, were Darren Criss and Jonathan Groff

One might say that i am biased, because everyone knows that I am a MASSIVE Jonathan Groff fan, even my children at work know that Miss Emily loooooooves Jonathan Groff

I think Jonathan and Darren’s performances were both very different, and lauded for different reasons. 

Darren’s performance was more physical than Jonathan’s, with Kabuki vibes. It reminded me of Margot Robbie’s performance in Barbie, i was lucky to be close enough (second row to be exact) to see the nuances of Darren’s performance, and the small movements he incorporated into his character

On the other hand, Jonathan Groff is giving the performance of his life over at Circle in the Square….and i say this after i also saw him in Merrily TWICE. The show is built around Jonathan, and plays to his natural strengths, he has this amazing natural charisma that Darren Criss just doesn’t have the chance to showcase in Maybe Happy Ending (but he sure showed off in Glee, so we know he’s capable). From the moment he came out of the floor, he had me eating out of the palm of his sweat drenched hand, and never stopped. I also heard that he spent 10 weeks learning not only to dance (which is hard enough, especially as our bodies age), but to move his body in a way similar to Bobby Darin

I do think Tom Francis has the potential to win the Tony, he is delivering something so unique, and spellbinding. Where Groff and Criss charmed me, Tom thrilled me. Where Groff and Criss brought heart to their shows, Tom brought a sizzling pot of brooding charisma and grit. His rendition of the title song sent a thrill up my spine, and it even got an “OH MY GOD” out of me, and many other people. His mostly deadpan performance shouldn’t work, but it does, and it’s so bloody brilliant! 

Lead Actress in a Musical:

Will win: Audra McDonald

Should win: Nichole Scherzinger

I went back and forth on this one for a while, both performances were incredible, and i know i’m lucky i got to see them both. Nichole and Audra are truly giving their all in their respective shows, in the end, i couldn’t make up my mind, usually one performance wins me over a little more. But this one stumped me

Mamma Rose is the Mount Everest of musical theater roles for women, its hard, its grueling, and vocally demanding. Some of the most iconic actresses have played her, and brought their own flair to the part. Audra brought humanity to the role, but also sex appeal, snark, and bite. She is witty and sharp. I had trouble finding flaws in her performance, i do think her voice isn’t the 100% best fit for the role, it almost sounded…to pretty, but what she lacks in that department, she makes up for in her acting choices, and her chemistry with her co leads. How lucky are we to witness this master of her craft doing what she does best, in the most iconic and difficult role? Gavin….you were right 

On the other hand, Nichole is giving a tour de force performance as Norma Desmond. Another very tough and demanding role, maybe as demanding as Mamma Rose, its hard to believe that Nichole is making her Broadway debut, she seems so at home on stage. Nichole brought something very fresh and heartbreaking to Norma, her performance is sexier then Audra, but also volcanic, grounded in reality, and explosive. I couldn't believe what i was seeing, since this particular production is so minimal, the performances really are at the center of the show, and Nichole delivered something special

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Will win: Jak Malone

Should win: Jak Malone

I think we can all agree on this one, Jak was the best part of this show, he stands out among an already amazing supporting cast in what is truly, an amazing show. But, it was his big solo, Dear Bill that took his performance from “amazing” to “HOLY SHIT GIVE HIM A TONY NOW!” i was almost moved to tears multiple times by him. The performance is almost shapeshifting. I love him so much in this role. And its not just a good performance, its a performance that elevates the entire show, when Jak isn’t on stage, all i can think about is “where is Jak?” I think that is the mark of a good performance.

Best Featured Actress:

Will Win: Joy Woods

Should Win: Joy Woods

Part of this choice is that fact that Gracie Lawerence and Joy are the only people in this category i’ve seen. 

Gracie gave a wonderful performance, she has a gorgeous voice and has good chemistry with Jonathan Groff, but when compared to Joy Woods, she didn’t stand out as much. 

Natalie Venetia Belcon does have a good running chance, she won all the off broadway awards for acting. but again, i haven’t seen BVSC! So I cannot speak to the nuances of her performance. I feel like the other shows don’t have enough love and buzz, especially Real Women Have Curves. 

Julia Knietel from Dead Outlaw is set up to be an awards darling, more among critics then fans, fans either love or hate it, and her performance is heavily lauded (who am i kidding? All the performances are)

Scenic Design of a Play:

Will win: Stranger Things

Should win: Stranger Things

The only nominated play i’ve seen is Stranger Things, and thankfully, while not everyone agrees that it is the overall theatrical masterpiece that i (and many fans) think it is, many people agree that it is a technical marvel, it even took home a special tony for its optical illusions and special effects. I could not believe what i was seeing on that stage. I think at the end of the night, it will take home all of the technical awards. This is a technical masterclass. Not since Phantom of the Opera have i seen a show that genuinely blew my mind with its technical effects. 

And SPOILER can we talk about that mindflayer reveal? It comes out of Louis’ back, and then the stage opens up as it gets bigger, revealing a puppet, bigger then the stage, that GOES DOWN INTO THE AUDIENCE! HOLY. FUCKING. SHIT!! I’ve never seen anything quite like it. It makes the chandelier from Phantom look like child’s play

And the scenes where Henry goes into Dimension X are so god damned creative and even scary, reminiscent of the show, it felt like i was dropped into an episode of my beloved show.   

Honestly, the opening scene with the boat is what sealed the deal for me, how on god’s green earth did they pull it off?

Scenic Design of a Musical

Will win: Maybe Happy Ending

Should win: Maybe Happy Ending

Maybe Happy Ending is a beautifully designed show, sleek, modern, with clear Korean influences. But it wasn’t just the sets that were so impressive, it was the use of screens and visuals. The scenes with videos actually made the human characters feel…less human then their robot counterparts. 

And SPOILER, that memory scene, when, sadly, Claire and Oliver erase their memories of one another, is a visual masterpiece. It was grand, cinematic, and beautiful. 

Costume Design of a Musical:

Will win: Death Becomes Her

Should win: Death Becomes Her

When you get the man who designed the OSCAR WINNING costumes for Wicked, you know you’re in for a visual treat. I can't think of the last time that costumes made my jaw drop so many times. They almost felt like another character in the show.